Friday, April 27, 2007

The Doctor's Draft Scenarios

Well the NFL Draft is tomorrow and the Browns sit #3 on the board behind the Raiders and the Lions. Here are my scenarios of what I could see going down based on TV, newspaper, Internet speculation and my gut feeling.

The Raiders are considering these three guys in this order at #1:
JaMarcus Russell, Calvin Johnson, Brady Quinn

The Lions are considering these three guys in this order at #1:
Russell, Johnson
(note that Johnson is for trade value, either they pick him at #2 and then trade him or someone trades up to get him, I don't see the Lions keeping him even if they draft him)

So based on the Raiders and Lions order of preferences this leaves the Browns three scenarios of what will happen before them:
A. OAK - Russell, DET - Johnson
B. OAK - Johnson, DET - Russell
C. OAK - Quinn, DET - Russell

So, in scenarios A and B this leaves the Browns their choice of Brady Quinn, Adrian Peterson, Joe Thomas or trying to trade down. (Unless they pull a total Butch Davis/Pete Garcia-esque surprise on us.)

In scenario C, Calvin Johnson falls into the picture, increasing the possibility of trading down, or the Browns have their choice of Peterson, Johnson or Thomas.

So what do I think will happen?

I think the Browns are scared of Adrian Peterson. With his injury history (and the phantom "Cleveland Curse" douche bags believe in) they are peeing their pants wondering if he can take a beating in the NFL. I don't think they take the risk. The safest pick is Joe Thomas, but I think they have plans on trading up in the latter part of Round 1 to get Joe Staley from Central Michigan and I don't seeing them spend more money on the OL (despite how much it would MAKE SENSE) after spending top dollar for Eric Steinbach and LeCharles Bentley unless he's got everyone totally fooled. That leaves us with Golden Domer QB Brady Quinn. This is who I see the Browns selecting at #3.

But what if they don't pick #3... What's that? The Doc is f'n nuts? For the Browns' sake I hope I am. So hear me out.

Ponder the things rattling around in my brain....
Tampa Bay (Pick #4) wants Brady Quinn, Calvin Johnson or Gaines Adams (for a trade to DET for Johnson).

Arizona (5) apparently Levi Brown more than Joe Thomas, so they could grab either of the two.

If Washington (6) doesn't trade up for Johnson they will take either LaRon Landry or a defensive lineman.

Minnesota (7) is wavering between trading up for Quinn or Peterson but has more pressing needs on defense.

Miami (9) wants Quinn.

Atlanta (8) is not going to take Quinn, Peterson or Thomas. They would only trade up to get Johnson.

Houston (10) is praying Peterson's falls to them.

If, and it's a big if, we could entice Washington (6), Minnesota (7) or Miami (9) into trading up and pick up some extra second and third round draft picks I could see this following scenarios possibly playing out

1. If we swap with Washington we could still get Quinn (unless TB takes him), Thomas (if AZ takes Levi Brown) or Peterson is still there at #6. Plus we got the additional draft picks.

2. If we swap with Minnesota, they will take either Quinn or Peterson which leaves us with the other one, Joe Thomas or Levi Brown (whoever AZ doesn't pick) at #7. Plus we got the additional draft picks.

3. If we swap with Miami, they take Quinn, Arizona takes Thomas (or Brown) and Minnesota takes Peterson (or a defensive player) and we end up with either Peterson, Thomas or Brown at #9. Plus we got the additional draft picks.

We need more talent, period. I am hoping and praying Phil is f'n with everybody's head on purpose. I actually heard an ESPN Radio comment on the state of the "perpetual early first round drafters": Oakland, Detroit and Cleveland which is due to them having such a poorly run organization (Doc Poove's #1 complaint about our beloved Browns). They actually said that while Oakland and Detroit have idiots (their word not mine) running the talent evaluation, they feel Phil Savage is taking the right steps to fix the "grease fire" (their word not mine) he inherited but that it will be a long process. I hope they are right about Phil having a clue. If he pulls off a draft like 2006 and picks up the the guy he's wanted from Day 1 in addition to the extra first day picks we desperately need, I might start to believe it.

Godspeed, Phil Savage.

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